Premier League : Liverpool vs Aston Villa Prediction & Betting Tips

Match: Premier League

Fixture: Liverpool vs Aston Villa

Local Kick-off Time: 20:00, November 1st

Handicap Prediction:

Liverpool -0.75 (Asian Handicap)

Home Win (European Handicap)

Predicted Scores: 1-0, 2-0, 2-1

Predicted Total Goals: 1, 2, 3

Comprehensive Analysis:

Liverpool has had a mixed start to the season, with a high start followed by a slump. Currently, they have 5 wins and 4 losses, ranking 7th in the standings, a significant drop compared to last season. As last season’s champions, being excluded from the European qualification zone is far from ideal, and they urgently need a win in the next game to boost morale. The team is currently in a slump, losing 6 of their last 7 games across all competitions. Their four-game losing streak in the Premier League has set an embarrassing record for the defending champions, and they even lost 0-3 to Crystal Palace in the midweek EFL Cup, with obvious loopholes in both attack and defense, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game in the last 10 matches. Moreover, the team is currently facing a severe injury crisis: starting goalkeeper Alisson Becker will be out until late November due to a groin injury; defenders Jeremie Frimpong (hamstring injury) and Leonardo (knee injury) are both sidelined; midfielders Curtis Jones, Ryan Gravenberch, and Stefan Bajcetic are among several players injured; and forward Alexander Isak is also absent due to a groin issue. Both the front and back lines have been severely hit. The only bright spot is the historical head-to-head record—they have remained unbeaten in the last 10 meetings with 7 wins and 3 draws.

Aston Villa has shown steady performance this season, currently ranking 8th in the standings with 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses. Although their start was not ideal, the team’s performance has improved as the season progresses. They have achieved 5 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 games, including a 1-0 clean sheet victory over Manchester City in the league and a 2-1 away win over Tottenham, showing strong ability to compete against top teams. Their defense has conceded only 7 goals in the last 10 games. However, Aston Villa has the characteristic of "prioritizing certain competitions"—the energy consumption from the Europa League may affect their physical fitness. In addition, their away win rate is particularly poor, with only a 25% away win rate so far this season. Fortunately, the team’s injury situation is not too serious, with only rotation players like Youri Tielemans (calf injury) and Diego Carlos sidelined, and core players like Emiliano Buendía and Ollie Watkins all available to play.

Summary:

Combining the fundamental data and statistics, Aston Villa has an advantage in recent form, but Liverpool is playing at home this time. The support from fans, the home ground advantage, and the rotation in the midweek EFL Cup mean Liverpool’s key players have no reason to lose again. Regarding Liverpool’s home performance this season, their only big win was a 4-2 victory over Bournemouth in the first round of the league, which has no reference value. From past head-to-head clashes, Liverpool does have a temporary psychological advantage. In terms of the Asian Handicap, the initial line opened with Liverpool -1, showing support for Liverpool, but the current Asian Handicap has dropped to -0.75, reflecting the market’s lingering doubts about Liverpool. However, after their recent slump, if they fail to win this game, they will likely fall out of the championship race entirely. Therefore, it is advisable to support Liverpool to win the game at home.