EFL Trophy : Bristol Rovers vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction & Betting Tips

Match: EFL Trophy

Fixture: Bristol Rovers vs Plymouth Argyle

Local Kick-off Time: November 11th, 19:00

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Handicap Prediction:

Plymouth Argyle -0.25 (Asian Handicap)

Away Win (European Handicap)

Predicted Scores: 0-0, 0-1, 1-1

Predicted Total Goals: 0, 1, 2

Comprehensive Prediction Analysis:

Bristol Rovers have experienced a split season: struggling in the league but steady in cup competitions. They sit 17th in League Two with 17 points from 17 games, losing their last five league matches and all three recent home games, conceding 14 goals in the past month—their defense is virtually non-existent. However, in the EFL Trophy, they have already qualified for the round of 32, drawing with Tottenham Hotspur U21 on penalties in their first game and beating Cheltenham Town 1-0 in the second, maintaining an unbeaten record. In terms of the squad, three key players including Aaron Collins and Hooper are sidelined with injuries, limiting midfield creativity. The attack relies heavily on the link-up play of Josh Coburn (2 goals, 4 shots on target). However, the cup competition has become a key confidence booster for fringe players, who show significantly more fighting spirit than in the league. To reverse their poor home form, manager Darrell Clarke has specifically strengthened set-piece tactics to compensate for low open-play efficiency.

Plymouth Argyle are mired in a five-game losing streak, sitting at the bottom of League One with 13 points and recently being eliminated from the FA Cup with a 0-2 defeat—struggling in both domestic competitions. Nevertheless, they top their EFL Trophy group, winning 2-0 at home against Cheltenham Town and thrashing Tottenham Hotspur U21 6-2, demonstrating strong adaptability to cup football. However, their away form is disastrous, losing all four recent away games. The team also faces serious injury issues, with five key players including Jack Mackenzie and Julio Pleguezuelo sidelined, forcing a makeshift defense with Taylor Moore as the only reliable pillar. The attack relies on the partnership between Ryan Hardie and Owen Dale, but away offensive efficiency drops sharply, making it difficult to replicate their home firepower.

Summary:

Plymouth Argyle hold an overwhelming advantage in their last five meetings with Bristol Rovers, winning 3, drawing 1 and losing 1, never having lost to them away from home. Last season, they secured a dramatic 2-1 League One victory with a late winner, giving them a significant psychological edge. Currently, Bristol Rovers have already qualified for the next round of the EFL Trophy, and their motivation for this match focuses more on "ending their home slump and boosting morale." With a similarly matched league opponent next week, they have room to go all out. Although Plymouth top the group, they need to avoid a cup defeat that would worsen their slump. However, they face a crucial League One relegation battle in three days, making it likely they will rotate key players to avoid overexertion. Bristol Rovers have home advantage and cup unbeaten resilience, but their defensive collapse and poor head-to-head record are obvious drawbacks. Plymouth have cup firepower and psychological superiority, but are hampered by injuries, poor away form and the need to balance two competitions. In the Asian Handicap, bookmakers surprisingly favored the away team Plymouth with a -0.25 handicap, and there has been no significant late support for them. This signals the market believes Plymouth can make an impact in this match. Therefore, overall, this match favors Plymouth Argyle to pick up points away from home.